Plugged In

August 2, 1999

Bob O'Donnell makes a few startling -- and final -- predictions

By Bob O'Donnell

Writing a column about predictions is certainly not a novel idea, but it is a bit unusual to do one two-thirds of the way through a year. I wanted to do something special this week, though, for reasons you'll see below. So, in no particular order, here's what I think is going to be happening in a number of different areas.

1. In a few years, Y2K will be looked back on as Y2What because it will prove to be almost a complete non-event. Most industrialized nations have everything under control and the areas of the world that don't already suffer from power outages and other instabilities on a regular basis. Y2K won't change anything for them and will, at worst, be yet another bump along the road.
2. Microsoft will technically "lose" the antitrust case, but it won't really matter because the punitive stage of the trial will result in no serious changes being made or taken against the company. Strengthened in its resolve, the company will go after Linux in a big way, ensuring it remains nothing more than a bit player. Think OS/2 for the 21 century.
3. Along similar lines, the open-source movement will implode as its community-based approach is crushed under the weight of the movement's popularity. Egos will weigh in and the result will be splintering into multiple factions, which will greatly reduce the movement's effectiveness.
4. The home networking market will finally take off, thanks primarily to a surprise new entrant: Apple. The company's iBook and AirPort system will be a runaway hit and products based around the IEEE 802.11 wireless standard that it uses will blow away the HomeRF-standard products that have started to appear, as well as many of the phoneline-based HPNA products. It will prove to be yet another case of the market picking the right technology, not standards committees.
5. Despite other predictions to the contrary, DSL will surpass cable modems as the primary means for most of the United States to get broadband access to the Internet into homes and small businesses. Phone companies may be slow, but cable companies are even slower in getting anything done, particularly in something as large as upgrading their existing systems to support two-way high-speed data. Unfortunately, it won't matter much because as the number of broadband connections to the Net increases, the load on the Internet backbone will become overwhelming, reducing Internet traffic to a crawl. The bottom line? You'll end up needing a 384K connection just to get your e-mail in a reasonable amount of time.
6. Somebody, somewhere will eventually develop a handheld device that has all the functions we want, including wireless Internet access, excellent speech recognition, and the capability to work as several different types of devices in one. At this point, however, I'm not sure I'll see it before my 2-year old daughter graduates from college.
7. Intel's decision to select Rambus memory technology as a PC standard will look like an expensive mistake for several years to come. It will happen eventually, but not for at least another generation of processors.
8. One prediction I can be sure of is that this will be my last column for InfoWorld Electric/Infoworld.com. (Oh, and by this time next year, the site will get this name problem figured out ...) It's been a tremendous 3 1/2-year run, but as the result of my new position as Research Manager, PC Displays for industry analyst firm International Data Corp., I have to discontinue the column. I've thoroughly enjoyed the conversations I've had here and in my forums over the past few years and whether we've agreed or disagreed, know that I appreciated all the input. Feel free to stay in touch via my Web site at www.everythingcomputers.com and, oh yeah, buy a copy of my book, Personal Computer Secrets. Finally, a hearty thank you is due to my editors over the years: Rachel Parker, Kristin Kueter, and Dhyana Wood. Take care.

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© Copyright 1999, by InfoWorld Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of IDG Communications, Inc. Reprinted from InfoWorld, 155 Bovet Road, San Mateo, CA 94402. Further reproduction is prohibited.

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