November 16, 1998
Rulers in the mobile computing market: Will tiny Windows 98 notebooks squeeze out
Jupiter devices?
By Bob O'Donnell
Everyone seems to agree that the future of mobile computing is in small, lightweight
devices. After all, who wants to be stuck lugging around a heavy piece of equipment when
lighter options are available? The problem is, I don't think it's at all clear what those
lightweight mobile computing devices are going to be.
At this week's annual Comdex convention, Microsoft and lots of its partners are finally
going to be showing off the greatly heralded Jupiter devices -- small, notebook-like
computers that use the latest version of the company's Windows CE operating system. Priced
at less than $1,000, these devices have been touted as an important breakthrough in the
mobile market because of the alleged demand for small, lightweight computers with long
battery lives that provide basic e-mail, Internet, and productivity applications. The
argument is that most traveling businesspeople really only need or want something that
lets them get their e-mail, maybe type a note or two, and possibly give a presentation.
And the truth is, the new Professional version of Windows CE -- with its bundled Pocket
versions of Microsoft Office applications (including Outlook and Internet Explorer), in
conjunction with the touch-type keyboards and VGA screens found on Jupiter systems such as
HP's Jornada and LG's Phenom Ultra -- fits that demographic profile nicely. By using the
instant-on features of a Windows CE machine along with the built-in modems most of these
tiny notebooks seem to offer, someone sitting at an airport or in a hotel room could type
a quick note or quickly retrieve their e-mail.
In addition, weighing less than 3 pounds, these devices will undoubtedly be attractive
to end-users, much as the sub-$1,000 prices will be attractive to IT departments with
limited budgets. In fact, if Jupiter-type devices were available about a year ago, I think
they would have cleaned up. And, as a result, I think the mobile computing market would
have looked much different than it does today.
Ah, but what a difference a year makes. Since the time these types of devices first
became known, another important but less widely reported phenomenon has started to take
hold: the appearance of full-function Windows 98-based notebooks for around $1,000. In
many cases, the less expensive notebooks tend to be heavier devices -- but that's not
universally true. I have started to see 3-pound notebooks for around $1,000 from some
lesser-known vendors. And it's only a matter of time before more well-known vendors start
offering their wares in what is bound to be a very hot market for 1999.
Unlike Jupiter devices, which don't include hard drives and are essentially limited to
the applications burned into their unit's ROM, these low-cost, lightweight notebooks are
complete PCs and are, therefore, completely customizable with whatever applications an IT
department wants to install.
As a result, I think Jupiter devices are going to soon find themselves in the
uncomfortable position of being viewed as the "network computers" of the mobile
computing segment. In fact, some of the same arguments regarding customizability and
freedom of choice that Microsoft made against network computers vs. regular PCs might soon
be used against them when comparing Windows CE-equipped Jupiter devices vs.
"real" notebooks.
At the moment, the Jupiter devices still hold somewhat of a price advantage over
similarly lightweight PCs. But it's going to be a lot easier to get notebook prices into
the sub-$1,000 range than it will be to move the Jupiter prices much lower -- there simply
isn't that much room left to move. And as for the arguments regarding the benefits of
instant-on, well, isn't that what a notebook's Sleep mode is supposed to do?
Despite all of these concerns, I do think that some of the Jupiter devices will enjoy
some success in the marketplace -- particularly if they can distinguish themselves with a
unique design, such as the Vadem Clio/Sharp Mobilon Tripad machine. In the long run,
though, the market seems to lean toward the additional complexity and flexibility that a
"real" PC provides, and that doesn't bode well for the Jupiter machines.
©
Copyright 1998, by InfoWorld Publishing Corp., a
subsidiary of IDG Communications, Inc. Reprinted from InfoWorld,
155 Bovet Road, San Mateo, CA 94402. Further reproduction is prohibited.
