January 5, 1998
Whither Apple?
By Bob O'Donnell
It's the best of times. It's the worst of times.
Depending on which side of the news you happen to be reading, the current state of
Apple and the Macintosh platform can be viewed either in a very positive or a very
negative light. The truth is, it's both the best and worst of times, a seeming
contradiction that makes perfect sense if you're a long-suffering fan of the enigmatic
entity known as Apple Computer.
On the eve of the annual Macworld Expo in San Francisco, which begins this week,
important new products and developer support offer more hope and good feelings about the
future than the company's had in years. Yet, simultaneously, recent news about the
company's deteriorating business and its inability to find a new leader are some of the
most disturbing bits of information Apple's had to face in quite a while.
I think the cold hard reality is that 1998 promises to be an absolutely pivotal year
for Apple. The company will either make a significant turnaround and start to regain its
position in the computer industry -- or greatly accelerate its current downward spiral to
oblivion.
Thankfully, the company finally has a strong ally and critical supporter in the form of
Microsoft. Forget about the $150 million that Gates and Jobs talked about -- that's chump
change to Redmond. The real issue is that after more than 2 1/2 years, the Mac is finally
getting the latest version of Microsoft Office (and Microsoft is throwing in Internet
Explorer 4.0 for the Mac for good measure). No longer will the Mac be the odd platform
out, unable to easily read the most important and widely used file formats currently in
use. In fact, with Office 98 for the Mac, Mac users are actually getting a little jump on
Windows 95 users -- a first, as far as I can recall.
Having a current version of Office available for the Mac is an absolutely critical step
in helping the platform regain respectability among users and developers. (Frankly, I
think it sucks that one set of apps can have such a critical role, but that's the
reality.) Formerly loyal Mac users have been leaving the platform in droves recently, fed
up with the fact that all the most important apps come out first (or only) for Windows 95.
But Office 98 brings with it an aura of credibility that may stem that tide, as will the
introduction of OS 8.1, right on the heels of the OS 8 launch.
It's truly unfortunate that the beginning of 1998 marks the official death knell for
all the clone makers (except for Umax -- and its license will expire in June of this
year). But fortunately, Apple has a good story to tell in the hardware department right
now, thanks to its new G3 systems, although the company still very much needs to reduce
prices another 20 to 30 percent to remain competitive.
The one looming cloud that has no clear answer involves the company's leadership. Its
inability to find someone to take on the challenge of rebuilding Apple into the powerhouse
it once was speaks volumes about the seriousness of the company's problems. And the fact
that Steve Jobs doesn't seem willing to either take over or get out of the way just makes
the situation worse.
As a longtime user of the Mac, I sincerely hope the company can take the momentum
generated by recent developments and turn things around, but I'm also starting to prepare
myself to say goodbye to a dear friend.
Copyright 1998, by InfoWorld Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of IDG Communications,
Inc. Reprinted from InfoWorld, 155 Bovet Road, San
Mateo, CA 94402. Further reproduction is prohibited.
