December 28, 1998/January 4, 1999
PC Trends for '99
By Bob O'Donnell
As we enter into a new year thinking of things to come, those of us interested in
computer technology and its future have plenty of things to look forward to. Several
interesting products and technologies will debut in 1999 that are bound to improve our
overall computing experiences. At the same time, I think some important technologies could
become commoditized to the point of being virtually meaningless.
In the area of connection technologies, USB will make rapid progress in finally
replacing the "should have been defunct a long time ago" serial and parallel
ports. In addition, FireWire should finally make its mark with the debut of IEEE
1394-based hard drives and other devices that bring the technology from the digital video
fringe into the mainstream.
The most wished-for technology of the year will undoubtedly be high-bandwidth Internet
connections for the SOHO market, such as DSL and cable modems. There are pockets in the
country where the connections are available, but for the vast majority it's just not
there. Even in those areas that do have availability, the prices are often prohibitively
expensive.
Inside the guts of our computers, the PCIx standard will finally deliver the full
64-bit, 66-MHz potential of the PCI bus, and further chipset advancements promise to raise
system bus speeds to 133-MHz and beyond.
In the CPU arena, Intel will debut its Katmai line of processors, which promises faster
performance and new capabilities. These new "features" are via its set of
MMX-like enhancements to the chip's instruction set. AMD is also expected to introduce its
eagerly awaited K7 processor, which some industry-watchers believe will be the company's
first real threat to the Intel stronghold.
Ironically, however, just as some of these important processor technologies are being
introduced, I see a general decline in concern over what types of CPUs power various
machines. While there's a certain group of people who will never let go of this issue,
more and more of the mainstream is becoming less interested in the speed and type of CPU
they have.
The rapid growth of the sub-$1,000 -- and now sub-$500 PC markets -- is probably the
best example of this phenomenon, because machines at those price points emphasize overall
functionality vs. the capabilities of specific components. But their impact is also being
felt on higher-end systems, because even top-of-the-line systems are often being sold
based on price.
The reality is that virtually any computer you buy these days is more than capable of
running even the most demanding applications. As far as I can see, that situation will
continue for some time to come -- despite the "new" applications that are
apparently being developed to specifically work with Katmai. And this set of
circumstances, in particular, is the primary factor in the decreased interest in the types
of processors that are powering new computers.
Looking beyond CPUs, this same "commoditization" is happening to virtually
all components inside a PC. In fact, in most cases, it has already happened. Video cards,
modems, network cards, hard drives, and more, are all seen as essentially interchangeable
-- as long as a system has the components you want, that's all that really matters.
Starting in 1999 and looking forward, it's going to be much more important to know what
types of connections a machine has -- standard IEEE 1394, USB, and DSL or cable modem will
be the most important -- than what the pieces inside are.
©
Copyright 1998, by InfoWorld Publishing Corp., a
subsidiary of IDG Communications, Inc. Reprinted from InfoWorld,
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