December 14, 1998
Breaking down the Y2K hype factor
By Bob O'Donnell
In last week's column, I
focused on how basic human fear was driving much of the hysteria surrounding the Y2K
issue. My basic argument was -- and still is -- that the vast majority of Y2K problems are
grossly overhyped (typically by those who somehow have a profit-driven agenda of their
own), and that the fear of Y2K can actually be much more devastating than any technical
problems that may occur. If left unchecked, the fear and ignorance surrounding Y2K may
propel it to become a classic (and potentially disastrous) case of a self-fulfilling
prophecy. (See "www.equipped.org/y2kbug.htm,"
for another opinion on the matter.)
No stronger case could be made for these concerns than an incident related by an InfoWorld
Electric reader in the forum linked to last week's column. In it, he described the
tragic story of a teenager who recently committed suicide because of his concerns over Y2K
and because he saw no way out of the technological disaster the media led him to believe
would occur. (Whether you choose to believe the veracity of the story -- I do -- my guess
is that no one will doubt that such an event could occur. And that itself should be enough
to convince you of the seriousness of the human issues we will be facing over the next
year.)
Although I have no doubt that there will be minor disturbances to our everyday lives as
the result of Y2K, I'm also convinced that nothing catastrophic will occur. There are
simply too many warnings, too many incentives, too much planning, and too much money being
spent for a major disaster to happen. Plus, let's not forget that the types of problems
people are predicting as a result of Y2K already happen all the time. The power goes out
now, computer systems break down now, Internet connections go down now -- and we all
survive. It all gets turned back on and life goes on.
In fact, the major power outage in San Francisco on Dec. 8 is a classic example of what
a so-called "Y2K disaster" might be like. We all survived and the world did not
come to an end. Many people were inconvenienced, businesses suffered, and there were
reports that one traffic fatality may have been due to the outage, but society kept going
and people managed. In fact, some people even made the best of it, striking up
conversations with fellow subway riders they were stuck with and exchanging business
cards.
It's tempting to say this outage was like a dress rehearsal for Y2K -- and some
newspaper stories I read made that analogy -- but I don't think Y2K will be even this bad,
primarily because the power outage happened without warning. In the case of Y2K and
related dates, there's a predefined, fixed time when you know the problem may happen,
which is a huge advantage. As a result, companies of all types -- but particularly those
dealing with critical infrastructure, such as power, phone, transportation, and water
companies and agencies -- can implement contingency plans at a moment's notice. (And if
companies that may be somewhat vulnerable to Y2K-related issues don't have a staff
baby-sitting their systems as the clock strikes midnight, well, they're idiots.) Plus,
fortunately, Jan. 1, 2000 is a Saturday and a holiday at that, so the vast majority of
businesses and stores will be closed should any problems arise (which I doubt will
happen).
There's also been talk that the IT industry may be badly affected by Y2K because many
companies will set aside money that would have been spent on equipment purchases to fix
Y2K problems. Sorry, but I'm just not buying that either. The truth is, a lot of companies
are going to buy even more new equipment and software so they can be Y2K-compliant.
So does this mean I think Y2K is a nonissue and something we can just ignore?
Absolutely not. There are lots of preparations that still need to be made and lots of
procedures that still need to be completed to ensure a smooth sail into the year 2000
(which, by the way, is not officially the beginning of the new millenium: January 1, 2001
is). But even if some fixes don't happen in time (and many won't, as countless news
reports have told us), there's nothing to fear. Calm heads and rational thought will see
us through.
©
Copyright 1998, by InfoWorld Publishing Corp., a
subsidiary of IDG Communications, Inc. Reprinted from InfoWorld,
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