January 6, 1997
Beware the active desktop
By Bob O'Donnell
The year 1997 promises to be interesting for the Internet and all Web-related services.
I predict that in 1997 we will see a number of former high fliers descend into oblivion,
but there will also be exciting breakthroughs that will change the way we view and use the
Internet.
One technology that's bound to make an impact on end-users and IS departments in 1997
is the notion of an active desktop. Both Microsoft, in Windows 97/Explorer 4.0, and
Netscape, in Communicator/Navigator 4.0, have promised to bring the Internet directly to
our desktops and make it a practical, integral part of our day-to-day work.
This is the ultimate fulfillment of push technology, in which news, information, and
even applications will be continuously brought from various places on the Internet,
through the wires of a company's network, and straight to the hard disk of each user. More
importantly, this functionality will not require a series of plug-ins or other add-ons,
but will be built into the home state of each machine, whether that's through the desktop
interface provided by Microsoft or an alternative version offered by Netscape. Even
better, the type of information, data, and applications that make their way to your
machine will be customizable so that you'll only get what you really want and your
office/cubicle neighbor will receive only what he/she wants.
This continuously updating window onto the world is certainly appealing, but I think it
will keep many IS managers up at night, worried about how they're going to maintain some
semblance of order once these capabilities are commonplace. The types of potential
problems it raises are numerous.
One problem is that the technology is bound to increase network traffic to
uncomfortably high levels at many company sites, bogging down networks and making them
much more prone to crash. Also, it opens up huge potential security risks as nearly every
user on the network receives data and/or applications via the 'net, some of which will
undoubtedly be destructive. As Java applets move outside their secure sandbox and
inherently insecure ActiveX components become more commonplace, the potential for damage
grows.
As a result of the customizability features, the variety of different components,
plug-ins, applets, and other pieces of software that will start appearing on users' hard
disks will become astronomical, creating havoc for corporate Help Desks. If component
software paradigms really catch on, the situation will go from bad to worse.
In spite of these and other potential problems, though, my guess is that active
desktops will take hold in 1997 and will begin to revolutionize the computing experience.
People's desire to have access to this kind of information system will outweigh their
concerns, and the demand for active desktop-like features will drive the creation of new
tools and technologies that help address some of the more difficult problems.
Getting from here to there won't be an easy ride, though, and I expect that the
transition and its developments will fill a majority of IS managers' calendars in 1997 and
1998. But fulfilling the real promise of the Internet, which I think active desktop
technologies can do, was never supposed to be an easy task. Just don't say I didn't warn
you.
©
Copyright 1997, by InfoWorld Publishing Corp., a
subsidiary of IDG Communications, Inc. Reprinted from InfoWorld,
155 Bovet Road, San Mateo, CA 94402. Further reproduction is prohibited.
